The day before tomorrow (everything changes, or nothing does : election predictions).
Note : all illustrations are by my ten-year old son, J.X.I. Long ]
Key state Predictions
number of electoral votes is in (parentheses)
Arizona (11)
Biden wins Arizona, 52/45
Florida (29)
Biden wins Florida, 50/49
Georgia (16)
Biden wins Georgia, 51/46
Iowa (6)
Trump wins Iowa, 46/43
Maine 2nd District (1)
*note: Maine, along with Nebraska, is the only state that allocates a portion of its electoral votes rather than winner-takes-all
Trump wins Maine 2nd District, 49/47
Michigan (16)
Biden wins Michigan, 53/46
Minnesota (10)
Biden wins Minnesota, 51/46
Nevada (6)
Biden wins Nevada, 49/47
New Hampshire (4)
Biden wins New Hampshire, 55/44
North Carolina (15)
Biden wins North Carolina, 51/47
Ohio (18)
Biden wins Ohio, 50/48
Pennsylvania (20)
Biden wins Pennsylvania, 53/46
Texas (38)
Biden wins Texas, 49/48
Wisconsin (10)
Biden wins Wisconsin, 49/47
Senate races to watch
Alabama
Will flip Republican. Former Auburn U. football coach Tommy Tuberville will defeat incumbent Democrat Doug Jones, who is holding on by a thread. A thread that’s already snapping.
Arizona
Will flip Democrat. Mark Kelly will defeat incumbent Senator Martha McSally (R)
Colorado
Will flip Democrat. Former governor John Hickenlooper (D) will defeat incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner (R)
Georgia
Seat 1 :
Will stay Republican. Kelly Loeffler (R) will knock off current Republican Doug Collins and Democrat Raphael Warnock.
Seat 2 :
Will flip Democrat. Jon Ossoff (D) will defeat incumbent Sen. David Perdue (R)
Iowa
Will flip Democrat. Theresa Greenfield will take down Joni Ernst (R)
Maine
Will flip Democrat. Sara Gideon (D) will edge out Repub moderate Susan Collins.
Montana
Will stay Republican. Sen. Steve Daines will narrowly keep his seat over Dem challenger Steve Bullock.
North Carolina
One of the most expensive races in congressional history. Going to go blue: Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) will beat Thom Tillis (R).
South Carolina
Oh, the fall from grace of our once-venerated. Here’s looking at you, Johnny Depp and Lindsey Graham. Okay, maybe not venerated, but Senator Graham got points in my book for being buddies with John McCain at one point and being willing to work across the aisle at one point in his career, only to sadly become another fawning Trump invertebrate in his post. I predict: Going Democratic. Yes, I think Jaime Harrison is going to topple Graham.
If I could pick one Senate race for a birthday present, this would be the one.
There will be many Republicans who soon face the judgment of their maker, the analysis of historians, and the scathing ridicule of time passing as their crimes, if nothing else, against rule of law, common sense, compassion, and moral consistency come to increasing illumination.
Lindsey Graham is high on that list for me. There will be many attempts at political redemption, calls for unity and forgiveness, acknowledgments that “…mistakes may have been made,” reasons given for why they didn’t know what they knew. But they have had their time and they have had the weight of knowledge, the burden of truth to grapple with in the present, and too many have laid down and paid a Faustian price for power. They got it. They got their power and many times, their agenda, in the present, for a four-year window.*
Now is not the time for retribution. It is time to reset the scales, and that means an accountability for wrongdoing. A hard look at who enabled the miscarriages of justice and reason during Trump’s reign. Graham is way up there.
*plus, of course, three Supreme Court Justices
Other predictions
Trump will try and declare victory early on.
He will quickly pivot from declaring victory to focusing on “massive voter fraud.”
Specifically, this will take two forms:
Calling, or “suggesting” for some form of ‘poll watchers.’ In other words, a dog whistle for some sort of armed force to “protect” the polls. Another, and more accurate phrase, would be called “voter suppression.”
Calling for all ballots to be counted by the end the day (November 3). Of course this is ridiculous and it’s been stated for months - and decades of voting processes - that the count is not complete Election Day. But he will pursue this line aggressively.
Under no circumstances, in my wildest dreams, does Donald J. Trump concede defeat tomorrow. He is far too weak of character to do so.
He will probably not concede defeat at any point. Reality will have to literally slam him out of the Oval Office. Or perhaps carry him out, flailing and screaming about the radical Quakers or communist Secret Service or whatever his enemy du jour is.
Democrats take the Senate.
Democrats keep the House.
As it becomes clear which way the tide is going, language of the Republicans begins to turn to phrases involving unification, forgiveness, moving forward, working together, etc.
Important people stop taking phone calls from the current President. This is a big big huge one.
His index fingers pace across Twitter in fury and frustration. His power is dwindling, people aren’t answering calls, his military and his generals aren’t doing what they ought to be doing - protecting him and his right to keep being President - so what’s a guy to do?
Keep Tweeting. Get angry. Lash out. Veer from voter fraud, and ramp it up: now it’s not millions of fake ballots, it’s possibly tens of millions.
And “…probably China, Iran, North Korea, maybe Russia, we’ve known for a long time they’ve been trying to get Sleepy Joe elected.” That is my projected quote.
As he’s lashing out desperately, he will grab ahold of anything, including suddenly taking foreign interference in our elections very seriously, and demanding immediate investigations into why these countries are working to get Biden elected.
But that’s the problem with power: you gotta have it to use it, and in our country, that power comes to an end. It is not his sovereign right to hold onto it. His allies will begin to disintegrate as it becomes clear that all his lawyers, all his tweets, and all his incoherent dog whistling is not backed up by reality. His grasp on power is disappearing and he’s turning into a lame duck.
Trump as a lame duck President is a very scary picture. No matter how conclusive results are today, this week, this month, in the end…if he loses, he still is in the White House until January. How does he spend that time, and at what point, internally, does he admit that he’s lost - or there avenues or strategies deep in a dark heart that he would still be willing to pursue?
A losing Trump probably transitions into media. There will be places - probably One World News - to still welcome him with open arms and hot mics. That’s scary. Very scary.
So…Biden wins the Presidency. And it’s not close. Votes still coming in, and every last one should and shall be counted. But I just have a feeling: I don’t think it’s going to be near as close as it’s seeming it is right now. I hope I’m not wrong on that.
Even if Biden wins, and even if he wins in a mandate, let us not forget what Donald Trump is capable of and the depth of his vengeance, pettiness, and desire to destroy and hurt anyone who is not ‘with him.’ I have a good feeling this week. But even a lame duck Donald can spend two months destroying and wreaking havoc in whatever way he thinks he can. Sadly and truly, I believe he will continue to engage in self-destructive behavior for the country, with the singular mindset that it will make anyone coming after him look bad. In the deepest part of my heart and head, I believe that Trump cares more about himself than his country or the people he serves.
So let us be vigilant. Let us vote. And let us shift our direction and hopefully rebuild not only big parts of our country and culture, but parts of our personal lives, such as the relationships that have been tainted by his brand of faux-patriotism for too long. I know that these things, this singular and binary way of thinking in terms of winners and losers, good and bad, doesn’t go away with his exit from White House power…but it deflates his power to use that platform and office to sow the seeds of discord, hate, distrust, and unkindness that he has truly been successful at doing.
Much love.
Joseph out.
